What to make of the U.S. election results, my take on it as a political observer

[Bluenoser]

First off, before I get into the main thrust of this post I want to note that I have spent the vast majority of my life tracking politics, not just domestically here in Canada but also in the USA, because as one of our most important Prime Ministers said when the US sneezes we get pneumonia, IOW what happens in the US tends to have massive ripple effects on us in Canada. Also when I was growing up the Cold War was still in full swing, and growing up in a known first strike target in the event of nuclear war left me wanting to pay very close attention to the politics of those that held the controls over the nuclear weapons, and while the USSR no longer exists the American political system/government has not structurally changed...*dry chuckle*

Now, my own personal politics in the American context would leave me in the Democratic party column, although not by as much as many might think given my known social policy/justice positions but by the level of disconnect from factual realities that have occurred in the modern GOP over the past couple of decades. I watched the rise of the power of the extremist elements within the GOP, and while they were restrained during the cold war to pay attention to reality as it actually was, once the Cold War was over they started to believe they could invent their own realities and it would be so. Well last night's results showed that this is clearly not true.

President Obama did not win as decisive a victory last night as he did four years ago and some seem to think that shows that he is weaker, that because he did not perform as well last time out that this means he has no mandate, this despite the fact that there really was a clear choice offered to the American voters by each side in the Presidential race, this despite the fact that four years ago was a "wave" election versus this time which was a "base" election, this despite the fact that no President seeking re-election with employment numbers as bad as Obama had has ever won re-election since FDR in the 1930s this especially matters given that this was the thrust of the opposition/Romney argument. It is also worth noting here that despite the less massive win from 2008 he held all but two States he won in 2008, and those were the two most GOP in political culture, one of which he'd won by only 14 thousand votes and last night narrowly lost (Florida is still undecided as of this writing, but I suspect that it will end up in Obama's camp at the end given how well he performed/overperformed in the areas he needed to but that is still a qualification needing noting here). He also managed to win the popular vote by roughly 2 and 2/3rds million votes, for a 50%-48% popular vote result. Many/most political observers prior to last night believed that the coalition of voters that swept Obama to power in 2008 was a once in a lifetime convergence, well that was also proven wrong last night, and that is a major and significant political reality change.

What does all of this really mean? On one level the results leave Washington looking very much the way it did a couple of days before the election, Obama is President with significant electoral college and general popular vote wins, the Senate if Democratic held by a handful of seats, and the GOP has the majority in the House of Representatives. However, when one takes a closer look one notices a couple of interesting facts. First off, in the House the GOP lost almost half of it's majority margin which they had gained in the 2012 midterms in the rise of the "tea party" wave. Second, in the Senate it was the more extreme aka "tea party" GOP candidates that lost and allowed more moderates to be elected to the Senate mainly from the Democratic party side (although Maine elected the Senate's second Independent Senator and he replaced the moderate Olympia Snowe Republican Senator who retired from politics in disgust with her own party's increased extremism). Indeed, it appears that the Senate in the end went more Democratic in the end, that the GOP lost a couple of Senate seats instead of picking up any, not what was expected even six months ago.

Taken together the Congressional and Presidential elections last night show that there is clearly an increased frustration with the party of "no", of extremism, and of wanting to go back to the imagined conservative dream ideal of America which never really was. That as much as they were not happy with the results of the past four years in terms of economic growth under Obama they believed that Obama had done what he could, that he had been frustrated by a opposition party that wanted to keep Obama as a one term President (which failed last night, and failed rather decisively at that), and that the solutions the GOP representative Romney was offering was not what most voters believed was the solution, IOW there was also a clear repudiation of trickle down economics which has been the GOP economic mantra now for several decades since it became taken seriously starting back in the days of Reagan. That there does need to be some increase in taxes paid by those that gain the most from the infrastructures of America which enabled their wealth creation to begin with.

Now, the last point I wish to make is the demographic reality shown by the results last night illustrates the dangers for the GOP as a governing party if they continue the path of being the party of "no", the party of exclusion, the party of white people first last and only with token representation by blacks and hispanics visually and not in terms of any substantive policies. While they held onto their majority status in the House, it was reduced significantly, they not only were unable to take control of the Senate as they had at the beginning of this year saw as almost a certainty (and while yes having a couple of GOP candidates discussing things like legitimate rape and rape induced pregnancy being a blessing from God significantly impacted this result there was more than just that involved in this result) they actually were weakened instead (which given that this time out the Democratic party was defending most (23 of 33) of the seats up for election this cycle is a significant data point and result). Combined with the same demographic coalition that elected Obama in 2008 returning to re-elect him last night (and some aspects of it apparently increased in some areas AND he was able to keep the youth vote up, no small feat and very significant, especially since as a rule of thumb youth that vote the same way in three elections in a row tend to stay that way in the rest of their life, and now with the young voters since 2004 having voted first for Kerry in 2004 and Obama now twice) this shows a fundamental realignment of political reality in American politics that if the GOP does not quickly respond to and fundamentally change their nature, become more tolerant and open a party than they have been will inevitably drive them into permanent minority status across the board on the federal level.

That Obama won despite being on a horrible economic reality shows which party is trusted more on fundamental economic principles and positions, especially since it was the economy and jobs that was the central thrust of the election campaign by both sides. Claiming now that they lost that there was no message, no mandate, no platform that Obama ran on that I am already seeing/hearing GOP spokespeople and prominent representatives both elected and not is further ignoring reality that they dislike by GOPers which got them to this point, and why many people with conservative elements in their nature but are overall moderates broke so hard for Obama and the Democratic party side. The single two biggest weaknesses this election showed with the GOP was their intolerance for non-whites within their party on a policy level and their inability to face any reality that they do not want to, in many ways I am watching the modern GOP resemble more and more the old Communist party of the USSR in terms of how it functions (not in terms of ideology, but in terms of how ideological purity matters more than reality) and FOXNEWS reminded me especially over the last several weeks of Pravda. This is *NOT* a healthy thing to have in a open society based on the rule of law and democratic governing principles regardless of the structure/form they take.

Now, the question is what will Obama face going forward, a GOP that starts to realize that it is the party that lost and must give ground, especially since it was in the war of ideas that they lost as well as in terms of candidates, or will they continue to place dirtying Obama's record and place in history as more important than getting America's economic and fiscal health in order, as has been their agenda for the past two years since the midterms which gave the GOP majority control of the House of Representatives. I'd like to think that the drubbing they just took would start to cause realization and recognition of reality within the GOP, but given how beholden that party has become to its more extreme elements (ie Tea Party, religious extremists, Grover Norquist the anti-tax crusader) and how powerful those elements showed themselves in the primaries this last cycle I am not hopeful, no not at all. Most pundits and journalists like to act as if both parties/sides are to blame for the present dysfunction in American politics, but the reality is that the balance is far more weighted on the GOP side than the Democratic party side in truth.

It is the GOP that exclaimed in the past that bipartisanship is an invitation for date rape, it is the GOP which made compromise and moderation dirty words in their political culture, and it is the GOP side who pioneered the most aggressive and ugly political campaigning concepts currently in play. That the Democratic side ends up having to respond in kind is because it is reaction, not initiation, defence not offence, and this is why when one looks with a detached perspective it is so obvious that one side is far more responsible for the ugly dysfunction in American politics and governance, and it is the GOP. Until they change it will not change, and in the end either the system stays broken or as we are seeing beginning to happen the GOP will be reduced to a rump party giving their opposition near permanent governing status, which also in the end is very unhealthy and dangerous for a functioning democracy. Normally given how hard the economic times are the opposition party should have done far better this time out, that they did not was at least as much about the problems within the GOP as it was the strength of the President and Democratic party, the question is whether this will penetrate the firewall of delusion that has surrounded the GOP mindset. I wish I thought it would, because I know it is vitally important for any functioning democracy to have healthy opposition voices within their governing structures, but to do that one must believe that one's opponents are honourable opponents who are fellow citizens who while with different ideas still want the best for their fellow citizens and country, not traitorous enemies that must be destroyed at all costs, which alas has been the GOP default position for the past couple of decades federally. I keep coming back to this because this more than anything else is why the political discourse is so poisonous, why the political culture is so unhealthy, AND why the level of governance both economic and other is so incompetent/inadequate for the realities that exist.

Believe it or not this was a hotwash analysis, not as detailed one as I have been known to do back in my political blogging days, I've tried to keep this as short as I could while saying what I wanted to, but this is something that is very complex and has very massive real world implications and impacts and I refuse to reduce such things to sound bite level discourse, indeed that is part of how the modern GOP have managed to disconnect themselves and their supporters from reality to the extent that they have, bumpersticker slogans may sound simple, obvious and great, but reality is complex, messy, and very ,Very, VERY, ever simple! Those that fail to recognize this will eventually be forced by reality to do so, and the longer it takes generally the harder, more painful, and more damaging to destructive the manner it happens.

[† Mute point]

I think that part of why Romney lost (yay for that!) was that he was too confident that he would win. He only wrote a victory speech, his people built (and mistakenly launched) a "transition" website, among other things. Including the fact that he openly predicted victory on many occasions, all the while ignoring what people really want.

What do people want? Seems a simple question, but it isn't really. Some, even in my own family threw their support behind Romney because of his religious background. Others were against him for the same reason. I cannot speak for everyone, but personally, what I want most, is the very thing that Obama promised (and has been attempting to deliver on despite the GOP blocking him every chance it gets) is change.

I don't speak of radical changes, but of small things. Giving everyone the equal rights and protections under the law that are promised in the constitution, the same rights that have been consistently denied to one minority group after another over the entire history of the United States. We are very close to having this, and I truly believe that Obama can make it happen.

[† L4ugh]

I don't see how the Republican Party stays a viable political option past the middle of this century. Their unwillingness to except the fact that elections can't be won solely on the support of white voters, is only rivaled by their unwillingness to except evolution as factual science. I'm beside myself just trying to figure out how they can honestly believe we are dumb enough to fall for, "see me after the election". I'm actually beginning to wonder if a Harvard degree is even worth the paper it's printed on. There is so much stupidity and hate within the Republican party that some of their candidates are actually running as Democrats, just to escape the toxicity of their party. I will be highly impressed if Republican isn't a dirty word 20 years from now.

What pisses my off the most, is that I was hoping they would be the party to save us from that arrogant prick Obama. I will gladly admit that the Republicans did everything they could during the last two years to keep Obama from a second term. I also can't deny that Obama took a two year victory lap while giving Republicans the double bird after he was elected. Obama did as much to earn Republican hate during his first two years, as the Republicans were willing to shower him with during the last two.

With all that said, I won't miss the Republican Party after they've faded to near nothingness. Not because a hate their stance on nearly everything, which I do, but because they actually managed to make me willingly vote for Barrack Obama. Something I swore I'd never do.

[† Mute point]

Obama tried to make things work in the early part of his first term, but it wasn't until the second half that he was able to get through some of the republican's red tape and get anything done. Although at the same time, the early opposition seems to have worked in Obama's favor given everything that's happened. He went into his first term hoping that everyone would play nice and work together, now he'll enter the second knowing that that won't happen, and he'll be prepared to knock some heads together.

[Bluenoser]

I think that part of why Romney lost (yay for that!) was that he was too confident that he would win. He only wrote a victory speech, his people built (and mistakenly launched) a "transition" website, among other things. Including the fact that he openly predicted victory on many occasions, all the while ignoring what people really want.

What do people want? Seems a simple question, but it isn't really. Some, even in my own family threw their support behind Romney because of his religious background. Others were against him for the same reason. I cannot speak for everyone, but personally, what I want most, is the very thing that Obama promised (and has been attempting to deliver on despite the GOP blocking him every chance it gets) is change.

I don't speak of radical changes, but of small things. Giving everyone the equal rights and protections under the law that are promised in the constitution, the same rights that have been consistently denied to one minority group after another over the entire history of the United States. We are very close to having this, and I truly believe that Obama can make it happen.

Now that a week has passed and there has been some time for some serious reflection on what happened I have to say that your point about Romney's failure to write a concession speech to go along with his victory speech being illustrative of why he lost has merit, and just just for the obvious aspect that it has regarding arrogance. It would appear that the GOP infrastructure (aka pollsters, pundits, strategists and analysts) really didn't believe that the 2008 turnout was one that could be replicated, that it was one of those once in a lifetime patterns (and to be fair, that was not an unreasonable belief going by American political history and the fact that 2008 was a near perfect storm against the GOP with the disgust of Bush43, the credit crunch/crash that started the same time Palin was selected for the ticket, and the historic opportunity of the first black President all coming together, indeed it said something about the electorate's tendency towards the GOP side that there was not a much bigger blowout for the Dems then) and that 2012 should have a turnout breakdown more along the lines of 2004, and under those models Romney would have won. That is why he took so long to concede on election night I'd guess, because his models and those throughout his party's infrastructure had been so uniformly expecting this and that they were having trouble accepting that they had been so wrong about this despite the reality of it staring them clearly in the face for between 30-90 minutes before he finally called Obama to concede. It also does help explain why there was such a chorus from the Right especially from FOXNEWS about the polls being rigged in the Dems favour, according to their models they were, the fact that the pollsters models actually reflected the reality that happened though illustrates beyond doubt who was better reading the reality on the ground though, which further underscores my point about how the GOP has become too reliant on defining reality as it wants it and then believing they will make it so.

As to your point about what people want, I would tend to think you have hit the point dead center, however the nature of the change and its direction, well that I think is not as clear-cut, which alas is why you have such a polarized and divided electorate these days I would argue. Part of the core problem with the GOP though is on the economics side, they still believe in the mantra about tax cuts a la Reagan, the problem with that being though there is a major difference between the tax structure when Reagan came to power and what exists now, and over that time the wealthiest have seen major tax reductions while the middle class has seen major tax increases, and when your economy is primarily (as the US economy is these days) a consumer based economy you need the consumers to have the money to spend to drive it, and that means the middle class especially, the wealthy cannot make up in this regard with their wealth because they can only buy so many things before they have enough when compared to the far greater numbers of the rest of the populace taken as a whole. To illustrate, a million wealthy people can buy maybe ten million new fridges (yes that is absurdly high realistically, but I need to make the point after all) while the rest of the population would buy at least ten times that if they had the money, translate that across the spectrum of basic needs for people and the economics of needing to go middle out instead of top down for a consumer driven economy is extremely, indeed blindingly obvious. There was a time when trickle down economics was called voodoo economics for a reason after all, and that truth has IMHO become only more obvious over the last 30 years not less, especially given how much more of a consumer based economy exists now than then in the USA.

I hope you are correct in your closing paragraph, and I can see where you could well be given how much generational shift is impacting prevailing social attitudes on minority rights across the board and on the importance of true equality for all before the law, but until I see it I am not counting on it, hoping yes, counting no.

I don't see how the Republican Party stays a viable political option past the middle of this century. Their unwillingness to except the fact that elections can't be won solely on the support of white voters, is only rivaled by their unwillingness to except evolution as factual science. I'm beside myself just trying to figure out how they can honestly believe we are dumb enough to fall for, "see me after the election". I'm actually beginning to wonder if a Harvard degree is even worth the paper it's printed on. There is so much stupidity and hate within the Republican party that some of their candidates are actually running as Democrats, just to escape the toxicity of their party. I will be highly impressed if Republican isn't a dirty word 20 years from now.

What pisses my off the most, is that I was hoping they would be the party to save us from that arrogant prick Obama. I will gladly admit that the Republicans did everything they could during the last two years to keep Obama from a second term. I also can't deny that Obama took a two year victory lap while giving Republicans the double bird after he was elected. Obama did as much to earn Republican hate during his first two years, as the Republicans were willing to shower him with during the last two.

With all that said, I won't miss the Republican Party after they've faded to near nothingness. Not because a hate their stance on nearly everything, which I do, but because they actually managed to make me willingly vote for Barrack Obama. Something I swore I'd never do.

There always was a certain level of anti-intellectualism in American political culture, no doubt a part of the by your bootstraps with hard work mentality taken too far, but the GOP over the past few decades has taken it way too far and made it a fundamental requirement of being a "real" conservative. When they started saying that Science was partisan was a major tipping point, science and scientific reality is never partisan, its results may be put to partisan use, but the basic nature of science and scientific research/discovery is the same as any other tool, it is inherently neutral, it is how it is used that can make is positive or negative, good or evil. Watching the denial on things like evolution because it is still "only a theory" because they fundamentally misunderstand how the word theory is being used in its context here is infuriating (hells gravity is still call the theory of gravity for a reason, yet they don't argue that gravity isn't real because it is a theory, although I suppose given them time...*sigh*), same as watching the denialists on global warming because it does not suit their partisan preferences. The anti science, anti reality nature of the modern GOP/conservative in NA is why I could never support them, even when I have issues with the other side of the spectrum (which I do on occasion) or with the leadership (which I do with Obama, I've never liked him, thought Hilary was a much more qualified choice to deal with the obvious disasters that were coming out of the Bush43/GOP mismanagement of the economy and foreign policy fields and that electing a female President would be even more of a breakthrough than a black man, too often it seems that "bro's before ho's" defines which prejudice is more acceptable than the other, but that is another issue for another time) , because I want my political representatives to be dealing with reality before I care about what political philosophy they prefer to do so with, and if they can't do that much then having them anywhere near power of any sort is always going to end up with bad results in the end. Even when they get lucky for a time things build up and the longer they do the worse the fall when reality finally says enough is enough.

Now, I agree that Obama did take a bit of a victory lap approach in the first two years, however, to be fair he had won a decisive victory which means that he should be allowed to attempt his approach to governing, and I also distinctly recall hearing right after he won powerful voices in the GOP already saying they would ensure he was a one term wonder by obstructing him at every turn they could. Now, I also find Obama a bit on the arrogant side and have since he first rose to national prominence, I mean really the first election he had to defend his seat for was as President? That shows a level of arrogance in his approach to his political career that cannot be denied IMHO, regardless of whether you agree with his ideas or disagree, to think that you should be able to climb the political ladder as he did throughout his career is clear evidence of a basic level of self confidence that can easily be characterized as arrogance IMHO. Again though that said he spent much of his political capital in the first two years fighting for his Obamacare, which had also been a central plank of what he had run for election on in 2008, ad the fact he managed to get it despite the resistance is no small feat, as well as showing a level of follow-through on a major election promise we don't see as much in modern politics anymore. Please keep in mind I am something of a emotionally disinterested observer on this score, I cannot vote in American elections and have not the partisan or even just personal emotional connections to be as offended as those of you whose politics this actually is, now if we were talking about PM Harper up here, then we would see a much less disinterested commentary from me, but that is because it is my political culture/system, as yours is yours. I would argue that while yes Obama was a bit of an arrogant ass when it came to dealing with the GOP in the first couple of years that the underlying hatred for him was far more whipped up form within without his help than it was being primarily generated by his attitude towards them. To be blunt much of the conservative attacks and disrespect I heard from conservatives from the moment he became the Dem nominee onwards carried more than a little racial overtones to it, one example being the birther controversy as one way to express it while ostensibly just being worried about Constitutional requirements being met. Overall I honestly believe that Obama could have been the soul of courtesy to the GOP and leadership but so long as he did not submit to their political outlook and abandon his own goals for theirs there would have been little fundamental difference in the end in terms of the resistance to Obama by the GOP. Just look at how even now they refuse to give on any tax increases on the wealthy despite that being a clear fundamental part of the platform Obama won reelection on with a clear majority in both electoral and popular vote numbers. The proof is in the pudding there I would suggest.

Quite honestly I find your politics federally to be extremely disjointed and very scary given how far disconnected from basic reality one side is, especially since that side seems to be able to hold power much of the time while being so. Worse for me as a Canadian the success the GOP has had with this approach/style of politics was adopted by the man that is now our current PM and has done tremendous damage to our political discourse and culture, and I went through the horror of Cassandra as I kept warning people about what he was and how he worked for years from when no one took him seriously to when he slowly managed to use the same ugly tools the GOP did to gain power to do so here. Ours is a fundamentally less combative political structure/environment than yours in its very design, and I have serious concerns about just how damaging this will be for us as a nation, not just in our political discourse but indeed in our very ability to survive as one in the long term, we are a much less cohesive unity than you Americans, we are far more decentralized in many respects and do not have as strong a federal government vis-a-vis our Provinces as you do from yours to your States. Again though that is another discussion for another time. Bottom line, I don't expect to see the GOP to reach political oblivion easily, and given how much your culture and society overall tends towards conservativism I would be cautious in assuming this trend is going to continue for long, until I actually see the GOP reach that point of oblivion or such radical changing that in terms of the modern GOP that exists no longer does from the needed changing for survival I am going to be very careful in my assumptions that it will happen. I've been nastily surprised too many times already that way not to.

[† L4ugh]

I’m not trying to say there wasn't already some deep seated hatred for Obama within the Republican Party. I’m just trying to say he was far from innocent. I don’t see where he had to cross any Republican red tape during his first two years either. Democrats held both the Senate and the House during those first two years, so they didn't need Republicans for anything. According to some very angry Republicans during the midterm elections, Obama made them well aware of that fact. That’s where my two year victory lap comes from.

Obama knew there was deep sentiment towards him coming from the Republicans, but he did nothing to try and bridge that gap. Instead he egged them on by leaving them out of everything he could, and reminding them they lost the ’08 election every chance he got. He even insulted Paul Ryan during a ’11 speech while he was setting in the front row. Then he tried to play it off like he didn't know Ryan was going to be there. Let’s not forget the all important Beer Summit either. Obama felt it important to be seen on camera while mediating some pointless dispute between an angry well off black man and a white police officer of questionable intelligence. While this is taking place, black youths die around the country every day to black on black violence. Couldn't he have taken some time out of his busy schedule to have a weed summit too? Surely he could have found the time to squash that little dispute as well.

I find his fight to get ObamaCare passed utterly laughable as well. The only people fighting over that were Democrats arguing for their fare share of the earmarks. Not a single Republican voted for that bill. This was supposedly the first time in history a billed passed with only single party support. There were also the back room deals made with the lobbyist to assure the companies involved would still be allowed to make off like bandits once the law took effect. While they were arguing over ObamaCare the economy was tanking, millions were losing their jobs, and a lot of other important bills were left to the sidelines. Democrats basically wasted two years arguing over a bill they all knew they were going to pass in the end. I fail to see how Obama really has the right to complain about the GOP not working with him, when he couldn't even get his own party to.

I will admit that I’m incredibly bias towards Obama solely on that fact that he is a Chicago politician. I have a deep seated hatred of any politician hailing from that city. Every trait I hate about them, Obama seems to have in spades. IMO, he really only cares about how history will remember him. What he wants more than anything is to be remembered as the black Abraham Lincoln. I really do hope all the things Obama promised in ’08 manage to get accomplished in his final term. I just highly doubt they'll come about because Obama truly cares about poor blacks, latinos, or the gay community. He had the opportunity to help all of those groups from ’09-’10, but he was too busy trying to accomplish what Bill Clinton couldn't.

I do agree with you that Hillary would have been a much better choice. Unfortunately, she never stood a chance against the manufactured myth of a Barrack Obama Presidency.

On an entirely different note from the anti-Obama rant above. I'm loving how Romney is now crying about how the 47%, he said he wasn't going to worry about, didn't vote for him.

[DrumRoll]

TBH, I think that the world is in such dire straights that it makes very little difference who sits in the big chair, even when its on the scale of the USA. I doesn't matter who they are because they still can't solve the crisis that is dwindling natual resources and gross overpopulation. Well, maybe the last one, but then I doubt they would hold their postion for very long if they told people to take a look at the bigger picture.

Also, I might just be a relentless pessimist in saying this but I believe the financial situation is not going to be over if a few years. I think things are going to stay the way they are for a very long time and will keep getting worse. And before anyone objects please spare a thought for the last time fuel costs went down or wages increased by something other than half a penny. I'm not a political mastermind but even I can see that people are getting pulled in both directions, costs rise and wages don't-or perhaps you are one of the millions of people left without a job?